It ain’t easy…
…to find an apartment! And it ain’t going to be easier anytime soon. The November Real Time Report shows us how the is market continuing to shrink, and honestly, we have a housing shortage of luxury homes in Manhattan. With less on the market, I can only predict that prices will continue to rise at an alarming rate. The extreme upper end will continue to gain strength over the next year and we can expect that a $10 million sale will be run-of-the-mill and deals over $50 million will become less newsworthy. All further proof that New York City is the strongest residential market on the globe.
Shaun Osher is the CEO and founder of CORE.
A: IT DEPENDS ON WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR.
It’s that time again. All the responsible communicators of our industry analyze the “quarterly reports”, and educate the consumer about where things are……supposedly. The problem is that none of them reflect the same parameters of information.
CORE is the first company that started a Realtime Report that reflects CONTRACT SIGNED data, and not CLOSED SALES data. Simply, this means we reflect data from a specific time in the market when deals are being consummated, not data from a broad time period from months (or years) ago on negotiated deals that happen to close in the same period. This is why we see a lot of data that trails the market by as much as a year or more, and remains inconsistent to what brokers, buyers, and sellers are experiencing in Real Time!
Here’s this past Quarter’s Realtime Report.
Looking back over the past six months of market activity, it is clear to see that we are in a stage of absorption recovery, yet further price weakness. This has been the fastest market adjustment we have ever seen in the city and it is clear that Manhattan has not been immune to the effects of the national housing market and weakened global economy. The last three months of 2008 had the lowest deal volume for decades, and perhaps historically. Even the post September 11, 2001 market activity decline was brisker than the decline we are currently facing. January 2009 had fewer than 200 new contracts signed in Manhattan, but since then, the deal activity has consistently increased across the board. June had more than four times the volume of new contracts signed than January. On average, the market is selling close to 40% lower than its highs from 18 months ago. In the past six months, we have seen new contracts being signed at consistently lower prices. The weakest part of the market continues to be the luxury market (3 bedrooms and larger) and even though we see a slight increase in contract prices, there are still very few larger units purchases being negotiated. There are small signs of a recovery, but it is unclear if this is seasonal, pent up demand from no activity, or buyers starting to recognize that this is clearly their market, and they are beginning to taking advantage of the opportunities that exist. As prices have continued to decline, there is a sense that we are nearing a bottom, although the timing of a turnaround is uncertain. Thanks CNBC for taking note. (more…)
This month’s Realtime Report shows us some encouraging signs of a market, that has been in a deep freeze, starting to thaw. The numbers speak for themselves, so I’ll discuss some other indicators giving us market insight….
Open house traffic for this past rainy Sunday was the strongest all year. Our retail storefront has been very active with buyers and renters who seem to be real, and not vultures. (more…)