Jonathan Miller asks us to “forget 2008 and especially 2007”, in his Three Cents Worth report issued today but I think there is valuable information to be gleaned from evaluating trends within these two previous years and a number of others preceding them.
While no one denies the impact recent disasters in the financial markets have had on overall sales volume for Manhattan and the rest of the country, it is interesting to note that in the years we are supposed to forget there were highs and lows of quite an extreme nature within each year. Between Q2 2007 and Q4 we see a difference of $1.65B between a high of $5.25B and $3.6B. 2008 shows similar fluctuations between Q2 and Q4 with $5.1B and $3.4B respectively.
I am not the type of prognosticator willing to say that Q1 2009 will see a rebound sending us towards the catastrophic heights seen in previous years, but I am willing to realistically consider the possibility that Q2 2009 will see a marked difference from our current condition. Hey, if Q4 saw an increase following the attacks of 11 September 2001, I am willing to forgive but not forget.