Predicting 2014: Pros weigh in on everything from de Blasio to prices, but agree that market can’t keep up with last year’s pace

The Real DealJanuary 01, 2014
Sure, nobody knows what’s actually going to happen in the New York City residential real estate market in the New Year. But it’s still fun to guess.

In this month’s Q&A, The Real Deal asked residential brokerage heads, market analysts and developers to give us their best educated guesses on everything from residential pricing to how the beginning of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s term in City Hall will impact the market.

Most seemed to be in agreement on at least one thing: the 2014 market will not be able to sustain the pace of the 2013 market. But, they said, that’s more a function of the record-setting pace of nearly every metric in 2013 than it is of the coming year.

“It’s unrealistic to expect deal volume to compete with what we just experienced, so I would lower my expectations on the future pace of contract activity and ultimately price action for 2014,” said Noah Rosenblatt, the founder of brokerage and research platform UrbanDigs.

While Rosenblatt and others said a shortage of inventory will continue into the New Year and will lift prices, some said buyers have hit their limit on price increases. That’s partly because much of the inventory that is coming on the market is being “posited toward the ultra-luxury buyer,” said Core CEO Shaun Osher, who noted that the “affordable luxury” sector —between $1.5 million and $3 million — is still seeing a void of quality product. He said anything listed in that price range this year will do well.

In addition, several sources said they didn’t expect de Blasio’s first year in office to impact market conditions immediately, partly because it will be hard for him to get anything passed in Albany because of the state elections this year. But they said, depending on what the new mayor does this year, his presence could impact the pipeline of residential product more long-term.

For more on which areas of the city are expected to do best and worst, what developers are looking out for, and what to anticipate in terms of a residential bubble, we turn to our panel of experts.